tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5360814020056871156.post8852851160469618944..comments2024-03-03T13:55:46.243-08:00Comments on Ambling Along the Aqueduct: Racism and Election 2008Timmi Duchamphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00673465487533328661noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5360814020056871156.post-19982705450230901592008-10-21T12:18:00.000-07:002008-10-21T12:18:00.000-07:00Is it possible, that Obama's lead could evaporate ...Is it possible, that Obama's lead could evaporate on election day because of Bradley-Wilder effect? Or nowadays Americans are significantly less reluctant to vote for an African-American? Vote here - http://www.votetheday.com/america/secret-racism-will-subvert-obamas-advantage-333Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5360814020056871156.post-10812857888536497342008-10-09T13:58:00.000-07:002008-10-09T13:58:00.000-07:00Fivethirtyeight does seem like a pretty solid sour...Fivethirtyeight does seem like a pretty solid source on this sort of stuff. I'm still inclined to be a bit wary, since I don't find it impossible that people would behave differently in a general election than in primaries or state races. On the other hand (touch wood), at the current rate Obama's lead is going to be big enough that even if you subtract 7% he'll be ahead.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5360814020056871156.post-73048817789429898262008-10-08T22:44:00.000-07:002008-10-08T22:44:00.000-07:00That's good to hear. (I was actually wondering abo...That's good to hear. (I was actually wondering about whether there had been such an "effect" in any of the primaries, but couldn't recall having seen anything about it earlier in the year.) It'd be wonderful to think the US has changed in that way. Thanks for mentioning this!Timmi Duchamphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00673465487533328661noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5360814020056871156.post-64627750434729155722008-10-08T21:52:00.000-07:002008-10-08T21:52:00.000-07:00Also encouraging are these posts at fivethirtyeigh...Also encouraging are <A HREF="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/on-race-based-voting.html" REL="nofollow">these</A> <A HREF="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html" REL="nofollow">posts</A> at fivethirtyeight.com: " There is simply no empirical evidence that the Bradley Effect exists any longer. It did not exist in the primaries, and it did not exist in the 2006 Senate race in Tennessee, which was perhaps the most racially-tinged contest of the past decade (in fact, Harold Ford slightly outperformed the late polls)."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com